The Blog
Insights, market notes, and product updates from the Swipe1 satellite team.
How Election Prediction Markets Work (And When They Beat the Polls)
Traditional polling tracks vote intention over days or weeks without incentives, while an election prediction market tracks continuous implied probabilities backed by…
How Crypto Prediction Markets Work in 2026: A Beginner’s Guide
By definition, crypto prediction markets are peer-to-peer exchanges where individuals trade outcome contracts based on future real-world events. Built on blockchain networks,…
FIFA World Cup 2026 Prediction Markets: How Fans Are Predicting Match Outcomes
Trading volume for the 2026 FIFA World Cup reached $31.2 billion in May 2026 across major event platforms. Supporters use a football…
El Nino 2026: How Weather Prediction Markets Are Pricing Climate Risk
Weather prediction markets are platforms where users buy and sell contracts on binary meteorological outcomes such as heatwaves and precipitation levels. According…
Crypto.com’s OG and the Rise of Mobile-Native Prediction Apps
Mobile prediction market applications allow users to forecast real-world events on smartphones using simplified interfaces instead of complex desktop trading order books.…
Commodity Prediction Markets in 2026: Oil, Gold, and Beyond
By early 2026, event contract platforms processed up to $24 billion in aggregate monthly volume as participants traded yes or no contracts…
CFTC Regulation of Prediction Markets in 2026: What Predictors Need to Know
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulates political event prediction markets as financial derivatives under its June 10, 2026 proposal. This 267-page draft…
Bitcoin Price Predictions 2026: What the Markets Are Saying
Bitcoin is popular in a crypto prediction market because its price provides an objective data point for clear contract settlement. While traders…
Beyond Elections: How Political Event Prediction Markets Work
A political event prediction market is a peer-to-peer exchange where users trade binary contracts based on administrative and legislative outcomes. Instead of…
2026 US Midterm Elections: What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting
In late May 2026, the election prediction market showed a 43 percent probability of a Democratic sweep of both congressional chambers compared…